![]() Aircraft and radar observations on Tuesday evening showed that Ian appeared to be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), with an outer eyewall of larger diameter competing with the inner eyewall for dominance. Reconnaissance aircraft found that its central pressure had dropped to 947 millibars. Ian was packing top sustained winds of 120 mph as of 8 p.m. (Image credit: Mark Nissenbaum, Florida State University) The intensity outlook through landfall Hurricane Ian’s rains as detected by National Weather Service radar in Key West, Florida, at 2243Z (6:43 p.m. The cone is not designed to show when there is a unusually high level of uncertainty with a particular storm’s landfall location, as is the case with Ian. It’s worth noting that the cone is based on the historical track errors for each tropical cyclone over the preceding five years, and the width of the cone is set such that hurricanes can be expected to stray outside the cone about one-third of the time. This unusually large warning area is even broader than the “cone of uncertainty,” a sign of how the coastal geometry combined with Ian’s track makes this landfall forecast especially challenging. Regardless of its landfall point, Ian will bring destructive hurricane impacts to large parts of Florida, including torrential rains and flooding, dangerous storm surge, and high winds.Īs of Tuesday evening, hurricane warnings extended from the Anclote River near Tarpon Springs, north of Tampa, south to Chokolosee, on the west edge of the Everglades. An eastward jog in Ian’s track on Tuesday has resulted in some major shifts in where and when Ian could make landfall. Hurricane warnings were extended southward along Florida’s southern Gulf Coast late Tuesday afternoon, encompassing the Naples area and Marco Island, as category 3 Hurricane Ian steadily intensified. ![]()
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